The probability of a tropical depression forming in the Gulf this week has increased a bit as of Monday.
The odds overall were still on the low side, however.
The system could end up bringing a lot of rain to the Gulf Coast, including Alabama, according to forecasters.
The National Hurricane Center said there is a 30 percent probability of a tropical depression forming in the next week in the Gulf, an increase from 20 percent the past few days.
The system being watched as of Monday was a trough of low pressure located near the east coast of Florida in the western Atlantic Ocean.
The hurricane center expects the system to track to the west and cross over Florida and into the Gulf by late Tuesday.
Conditions in the Gulf, with all its warm water, are expected to be favorable for the system to develop this week. It is forecast to continue heading to the west or west-northwest during that time.
A system has to have a defined surface circulation and sustained winds of at least 40 mph to be classified as a tropical storm and get a name. The next name on the 2025 Atlantic storm list is Dexter.
Name or no name, the system could bring a lot of rain to Florida and parts of the northern Gulf Coast, including Alabama.
Here is the seven-day precipitation outlook from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center:
The National Weather Service in Mobile continued to keep a close eye on developments as well on Monday.
Forecasters said overall confidence in the system’s track and intensity remain on the low side, “but this is something to closely monitor over the next few days as it could result in hazardous high-impact weather in our area if development and intensification occurs and it tracks close enough to our area.”
The weather service does expect the risk for rip currents to increase to moderate on Wednesday and high (the highest level) on Thursday, which means swimming in the Gulf will be very hazardous.
Winds could also increase near the end of the week as the system moves closer.
